Seems like it would work unless I am missing it, I put it in vba below. If [NAFTA Cost Base] is null, should go to 2nd part and check those 2 fields. Maybe it is going there but either [2016 Certification] is null or [Cert_Status] is not blank to allow it to do that calculation? Check your data to make sure you have a record where [NAFTA Cost Base] is null and [2016 Certification] is not null AND [Cert_Status]=" " for it to get to that last calculation part.
2017 YE Forecast: IIf([NAFTA Cost Base] Is Not Null,[NAFTA Cost Base],IIf([2016 Certification] Is Not Null And [Cert_Status]=" ",[Cost Per Vehicle]-[Traced Val],Null))
If Not Isnull ([NAFTA Cost Base]) Then
Me.2017 YE Forecast = [NAFTA Cost Base]
Else
If Not Isnull([2016 Certification]) And [Cert_Status]=" " Then
Me.2017 YE Forecast = [Cost Per Vehicle]-[Traced Val]
Else
Me.2017 YE Forecast = null
End If
End If